Brexit – what happens now? A very serious analysis, and prediction, indeed.
My track-record of predictions has not proven the most prescient, of late; but what I expect to happen, from this point forward, is roughly as follows (give or take a small margin for error):
Theresa May announces her plans for Brexit.
Tory Rebels (the ones who never rebel), along with Labour Centrists, and Vince Cable (current leader of the Liberal Democrats – a political party) intimate their support for Theresa May’s Brexit plans; having spent the previous two years complaining that Jeremy Corbyn was – rather unforgivably – failing to oppose May’s very same plans for Brexit.
This is heralded by the media as “the grown-up politics of compromise” – and contrasted with Jeremy Corbyn’s unwillingness to support his political opponents; merely because he disagrees with their aims.
Meanwhile, May has appointed one of Britannia Unchained’s authors to oversee Brexit. An appointment which many Centrist opponents of Brexit consider encouraging.
Britannia Unchained outlined a blueprint for the type of society which Britain can only be transformed into via the most extreme and damaging form of Brexit.
May knows her Chequers proposals will be rejected by the EU. Thereby allowing her to blame Europe for the decision to put ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ into practice.
At which point Tory Rebels, Labour Centrists and Vince Cable (if you’ve forgotten already, see above) all revert back to blaming Corbyn for not opposing Theresa May, and preventing Hard Brexit.
The same day, a manifesto is published on the front page of the Guardian: heralding the launch of a new centrist party.
It is the first time, ever, that a manifesto consists entirely of hashtagged-slogans:
Following input from a focus group, conducted in one of the most local places within Britain, the name of this new party is decided: Futile Endeavor.
Their flagship policy? A second EU referendum. Which is not – that is, not – a second in-out referendum; on the basis that time is cyclical, rather than linear.
Their platform? That Brexit is good and necessary; because of very real concerns about immigration. But Brexit is also terrible, and wrong. It must therefore be supported – and it must be opposed.
One Labour MP asks his wife for permission to lead Futile Endeavor – but she refuses to grant it. Several other MPs publicly announce that they intend to lead this new party; and also, that they have no intention of leading it.
Journalists applaud the announcement – praising its consistency and clarity.
Simultaneously, the Tory rebels complain loudly about May’s plans – and announce their intentions to think long and hard about withdrawing their support.
The media publish several articles, praising the Tory rebels for their integrity. For their patriotism. For their sheer Britishness, in putting the interests of crown and country above party politics – through a principled willingness to vote against Theresa May’s proposals, if need must.
‘A victory for the grown-up politics of compromise’ heralds the Observer.
A day later, the Tory rebels vote in support of May’s proposals.
Unfaltering, the media publish a full week’s worth of articles praising May’s tenacity. Her resolve. Her plucky determination.
Hard Brexit begins to rumble in the background. Shortly afterwards, due to the foresight, planning and combined talents of the British government, it erupts into a full-blown cataclysm.
May’s personal approval-rating tanks. By a striking coincidence, this begins the exact same moment her voters’ own material interests become jeopardized.
The media publish a full week’s worth of articles, denouncing May’s recklessness. Her lack of resolve. Her absence of determination.
Hard Brexit promptly turns into a debacle.
Theresa May resigns – a national unity government is formed: comprising the Conservative Party, and the hosts of BBC politics chatshows.
David Miliband is parachuted into the Tory safeseat of Question Time South; and appointed Leader of the national unity government.
The furore continues.
‘If only David Miliband was leading the Labour Party, right now, it would be 20 points ahead of David Miliband’s national unity party – the worst government in history’
blasts Politics Home.
A vote of no confidence follows, as David Miliband declares his lack of faith in the British public: ordering a new one to be formed.
This leads to a general election: the media are split in their support.
While most papers call it for the Conservative-BBC Chatshows Coalition, the Guardian comes out firmly in support of Futile Endeavor.
‘A new hope’ proclaims one editorial ‘for anyone who thinks Brexit is a good idea as well as a really bad one’.
A hard-fought electoral campaign ensues – of course, only one issue dominates the electioneering.
‘Say yes but no to Brexit’ demand Futile Endeavor.
‘Say no but yes to Brexit’ demand the Tory-led coalition.
‘Say yesnomaybe to Brexit’ demand the Lib Dems.
Jeremy Corbyn largely ignores Brexit – focusing instead on healthcare, education, social security, and employment rights; much to every journalist’s indifference.
Consequently, the New Statesman predicts electoral oblivion is imminent for the Labour Party.
Leaked memos reveal that senior staff at the magazine were embroiled in a heated discussion, for 3 hours, over the most appropriate headline: be it ‘end of the party’, or ‘death of a party’; before eventually settling on ‘run out of party’.
The Guardian, Independent, Daily Mail, Sun, Telegraph and Times predict a 100 seat majority for the Tories.
The results are announced: Labour win.
David Miliband loses his Tory safeseat to a joke candidate – dressed up as a giant can of refried beans. The Conservative-BBC Chatshow Coalition split.
In a surprise result, Futile Endeavor gain several seats on the BBC politics shows: taking Question Time North from Ukip; and turning Newsnight into a marginal for the Alliance of Thatcherite Think-Tanks.
According to the Electoral Commission, the Lib Dems finish just behind “void ballots” in the final results.
Newly elected Prime Minister, Jeremy Corbyn, decides not to go through with Brexit after all; on the grounds that it’s “a Tory cock-up”, and he “can’t be bothered with it, really”.
Tory Rebels, Labour Centrists and Vince Cable publish a joint statement condemning Corbyn for “betraying the will of the people on Brexit”.
David Miliband issues a public letter berating the impudence of voters; and begins to crowdsource a fund, for a statue to be built in his own honour – as Britain’s greatest ever peace-time Prime Minister.
In just under a year, almost 5% of the required funding is raised; before the appeal meets its expiry date, and closes.
That’s roughly how I see things panning out, at least – failing divine intervention. Which is often sadly lacking, these days. Or else, it simply arrives when no longer needed.