Migration, Employment Levels, and Welfare Reform: Iain and Theresa’s Dodgy Statistics

by richardhutton

Back in January 2014, two government ministers – Theresa May and Iain Duncan Smith – published an article in the Daily Mail, in which they made a case for depriving migrants of access to social security, and lambasted the previous Labour government for allowing migration to cause unemployment among Britons:

“It was a shameful betrayal of thousands of British workers. For years Labour presided over a labour market where the number of foreign people in jobs rocketed to record levels – while thousands of British workers were left on the sidelines, facing the prospect of long-term unemployment”[1].

And:

“With one hand, Labour doled out millions of pounds for people to sit on benefits. With the other, they opened the door to mass migration, with those from abroad filling jobs which our own people didn’t want or couldn’t get. In just five years between 2005 and 2010, for every British person who fell out of work, almost two foreign nationals gained employment”[2].

The Mail interpreted this as “evidence that immigration can displace some British workers and depress wages for the low-skilled” due to “figures showing the number of Britons in jobs fell by 413,000 between 2005 and 2010, while the number of working foreigners increased by 736,000.”

Smith and May subsequently claimed that measures taken by their government had reversed this trend:

“The latest data shows that of the rise in employment over the past year, over 90 per cent went to UK nationals.”

Well, how true are these claims? The primary assertion being made by the two ministers and the Daily Mail is that migrants caused the mass-unemployment of British workers during the years 2005-10. However, there are several precise statistical references adduced to underpin this allegation, and what is immediately apparent is that the numbers do not correspond:

“for every British person who fell out of work, almost two foreign nationals gained employment”

So, a ratio of one to two.

“the number of Britons in jobs fell by 413,000 between 2005 and 2010, while the number of working foreigners increased by 736,000”

A discrepancy of 323,000. There is evidently more to this than meets the eye.

So then, what does the data itself indicate? Firstly, the dates 2005-2010 signify two watersheds which May/Smith omitted to identify: it was during 2005 that the ten A8 countries were admitted into the EU, resulting in their citizens becoming eligible to migrate into Britain[3]. 2010 was the year when the two ministers’ government was elected into power. Something else happened during this period, however, which the Smith and May also chose not to mention: the onset of global financial crisis and recession, which took hold between 2008-2009[4].

Let’s begin by testing the ministers’ claim about immigrant employment making British nationals redundant, firstly by looking at the trends behind the respective groups’ employment and job loss. The source of data for this claim are the Labour Market Statistics reports, as compiled by the Office for National Statistics; which demarcates employees into ‘UK-born’ as opposed to ‘non-UK born’ people. However, the second category includes British citizens. As the ONS note: “the number of people in employment who were foreign born is higher than those who were foreign nationals as some people born abroad are UK nationals”[5]. Therefore the ONS provides a subsequent breakdown, which compares ‘UK nationals’ to ‘Non-UK nationals’.

The years 2005-08 are problematic, because the ONS reports do not provide data which delineates the respective employment levels of UK/Non-UK nationals[6]. However, the ONS did report[7] on the social trend of increased migrant workers in the UK economy during this period:

“People living in the UK who were born overseas are an increasing feature of the labour market – in Q2 2008 there were 3.7 million non-UK born workers in the UK, up from 2.0 million in Q2 1997” (p. 51)

So, does this indicate any displacement of UK nationals from employment into redundancy? No. Not only was the employment rate higher for UK nationals than non-UK nationals at the beginning and end of this epoch, but it increased for both groups in their own right. As the ONS explain:

“The employment rate of the UK born working-age population in Q2 1997 was higher than the rate for the non-UK born population overall (73 per cent and 63 per cent respectively). However, the increase in the rates among those born in the A8 countries, together with the increase in the employment rates for people born in other countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, meant that by Q2 2008 the gap in employment rates between those born in the UK (75 per cent) and those born overseas (69 per cent) had closed to 6 percentage points.” (p. 51)

So, contrary to Smith’s insinuation of foreign workers supplanting British workers, what the ONS data for this period indicates from the outset is that employment rates were significantly higher for UK nationals than non-UK, at least until 2008; and that the UK born working-age population actually improved slightly.

However, did this situation change following the onset of economic crisis, from 2009-to the present? Let’s look at the data for each year[8].

Year Employment Total UK-born Employment Non-UK born Employment UK nationals Employment Non-UK nationals Employment
2005 28.81 million N/A N/A N/A N/A
2006 29.00 million N/A N/A N/A N/A
2007 29.36 million N/A N/A N/A N/A
2008 29.39 million 25.69 million 3.7 million N/A N/A
2009 28.92 million 25.31 million 3.68 million 26.7 million 2.3 million
2010 29.09 million 25.41 million 3.89 million 26.9 million 2.4 million
2011 29.12 million 25.08 million 4.08 million 26.6 million 2.56 million
2012 29.68 million 25.42 million 4.27 million 27.07 million 2.62 million
2013 30.07 million 25.68 million 4.38 million 27.42 million 2.64 million

Despite the missing data, several things are immediately clear, just from the totals here. Firstly, there was a marked decline in both UK born and Non-UK born levels of employment between 2008-9, the years when economic crisis began; yet from 2009 onwards the total number of people in employment continued to increase each year. This pattern is consistent annually for Non-UK born/Non-UK nationals’ employment levels. However, there was a significant decline in the employment level of UK born/UK nationals between 2010-11, coupled with a marked increase of Non-UK born/Non-UK nationals’ employment levels – so, this stands contrary to Smith’s imputation of such a change occurring under the auspices of the previous government. That said, even this decrease in the overall level of UK born employment lasted no more than a year, and the general trend of increase had resumed by the following year.

The pattern of changing employment/unemployment levels between UK/foreign workers is more vivid still when the totals are rendered in terms of change. As previously, the ONS reports on 2005-2008 do not delineate data into nationality/birthplace, which is not especially helpful; but the years 2009-present are as follows:

Year UK-born employment / Change Non-UK born employment / Change UK nationals employment / Change Non-UK nationals employment / Change
2009 25.31 million- 457,000 3.68 million-45,000 26.73 million- 448,000 2.3 million- 47,000
2010 25.41 million+ 100,000 3.89 million+ 204,000 26.9 million+163,000 2.4 million+138,000
2011 25.08 million- 311,000 4.08 million+181,000 26.60 million- 280,000 2.56 million+147,000
2012 25.42 million+ 317,000 4.27 million+ 208,000 27.07 million+ 455,000 2.62 million+ 75,000
2013 30.07 million+ 256,000 4.38 million+ 112,000 27.42 million+ 348,000 2.64 million+ 26,000

The general trend across the 2009-13 period was one of increased employment for both UK and non-UK workers. There were only two real anomalies which stand out here: the impact of the recession in 2009 which saw both UK and non-UK employment levels decline; and the year of 2011, which saw the number of British workers fall dramatically, while the number of non-UK workers increased. So, it’s perfectly clear that May and Smith’s claims on this aspect have no basis in fact. Their subsequent claim that:

“The latest data shows that of the rise in employment over the past year, over 90 per cent went to UK nationals.”

is therefore misleading. Firstly, the actual number of British people finding employment had not changed significantly on the previous years – in fact the level of increase had faltered, from 455,000 in 2012 to 348,000 in 2013. Moreover, in 2011, it had declined by 280,000. What had changed drastically was the level of foreign people gaining employment – this had decreased from 147,000 in 2011, to 75,000 the following year, and 26,000 the year after.

More to the point, contrary to the claim that migrants had made Britons unemployed, and that “in just five years between 2005 and 2010, for every British person who fell out of work, almost two foreign nationals gained employment” the general trend in both cases had been a steady one of increased employment, until the onset of recession; after which these levels began to fluctuate markedly. At no point was there an equivalence between the decline of UK employment and the increase of non-UK employment. This is quite aside from the small matter of where, precisely, the two ministers sourced their data, because no ONS labour market statistic reports between the years 2005-2008 appear to stratify employment and unemployment changes into respective nationalities, or places of birth.

However, the fact that the two government ministers sought to mislead their audience on this point does not necessarily mean that no job-displacement at all occurred. For all of the statistical sleights of hand that the two ministers engaged in here, is it still the case that UK workers had their jobs usurped by foreign workers? This is a more complex matter. Firstly, although the ONS data on the UK labour market did not delineate the nationality/place of birth of workers prior to 2009, during this year they did publish a specific report on the comparative rates of UK born and non-UK born employment[9]. 2008 had seen a decline of UK born employment, and an increase in the number of non-UK born workers:

“In the 12 months to October-December 2008, employment of UK born workers fell by 278,000 to 25.6 million. In the same period, employment of non-UK born workers rose by 214,000 to 3.8 million” (p. 1).

Nationality – rather than place of birth – saw a similar pattern:

“Analysis by nationality shows a fall in employment of UK nationals by 234,000 to 27.0 million; employment of non-UK nationals rose by 175,000 to 2.4 million” (p. 2)

However, whether measured by birthplace or nationality, it is again evident that the numbers are not equivalent. In fact, the ONS attempted to clarify the possible misinterpretation this trend is open to:

“changes in the numbers of workers of foreign country of birth, or foreign nationality, do not necessarily reflect recent migration patterns”[10].

In other words, the non-UK born/nationals who found work may well have lived in the UK prior to 2008[11]. That said, there is nonetheless at least one indication of displacement occurring among low-skilled workers during 2011 – but this is where the matter becomes more multifaceted still, because the evidence does not support the two Minister’s implied claim that migrant workers displaced British employees into redundancy, whether under the previous government or their own. Something more intricate seems to have occurred herein.

The overall number of non-UK born workers had increased significantly since 2002:

“In the first quarter of 2011, around 1 in 5 workers, or 20.6 per cent, in low-skill occupations were born outside the UK. This figure has increased from around 1 in 11 workers, or 9.0 per cent, in the first quarter of 2002. This represents an increase of 367,000 non-UK born workers in low-skill jobs, with 666,000 in the first quarter of 2011, up from 298,000 at the start of 2002. Over the same period there was little change in the number of workers in low-skill jobs in the UK, which stood at around 3.2 million. However, the number of UK-born people in low-skill jobs fell from 3.04 million to 2.56 million”[12].

So this does initially appear to support the view of foreign nationals supplanting low-skilled UK workers. Yet, the data itself suggests that something different happened. The employment level by nationality, between 2002-2011[13] breaks-down as follows:

UK born

2002:               25.312 million

2011:               25.089 million

Difference:             -223,000

Non-UK born 

2002:               2.360 million

2011:               4.044 million

Difference:             + 1.683 million

So, in terms of overall employment, the numbers do not equate. If displacement from work into unemployment had occurred, then the number of UK unemployed would have been much higher. This assessment is reinforced when the impact of the recession in 2008, and the significant loss of UK employees’ jobs in 2011, are taken into account.

So, in regard to the level of migrants working in low-skilled jobs, and Britons leaving them, what stands much closer to reason is that low-skilled British workers moved into higher skilled occupations, and were replaced – not displaced – by foreign counterparts. This is indicated by the over-representation of UK-born employees in higher skilled positions:

“Looking at workers at each job skill level, the majority of workers at each level were also UK-born, at 79.4 per cent, 87.2 per cent, 87.6 per cent and 86.1 per cent in low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-skill level jobs respectively”[14]

The respective percentages of workers by nationality and occupation skill level is outlined with further clarity[15]:

“The highest percentage of UK-born workers were in lower-middle-skill jobs, at 33.7 per cent, and lowest in low-skill jobs, 10.3 per cent. Workers born in EU 14 countries were mostly in occupations needing high skill, at 36.0 per cent, while just 10.4 per cent of this group were in low-skill jobs. The highest percentage of workers born in rest of the world countries were in lower-middle-skill jobs, at 31.3 per cent, with 13.1 per cent in low-skill jobs”[16].

As with the two government ministers, the ONS’ reports here omit any mention of the impact 2008’s economic crisis had on employment; and represents the changing levels of workers as if they had been constant, rather than fluctuating. In another of its reports, however, these two aspects are made clear[17]. Between 2009-2010 the levels of both UK and non-UK employment declined; yet as a proportion of respective employment levels, there can be no doubt that non-UK workers suffered the higher rate of job-loss. The ONS record these employment levels (by country of birth) as follows[18]:

UK Born

2009:               25.283 million

2010:               25.039 million

Difference:             -244,000

Non-UK Born 

2009:               3.812 million

2010:               3.701 million

Difference:               -111,000

Measuring these by nationality rather than place of birth puts UK job-loss at 254,000, and Non-UK job-loss at 101,000. It is obvious that both sets of workers suffered high numbers of job-losses, but there can be doubt that Non-UK born workers lost jobs at a far higher proportion than their British counterparts during this period. In fact, when the overall employment level is rendered in percentiles, the rate of UK born workers actually increased during this period by 0.2% (from 86.9% to 87.1%); whilst the employment level of non-UK born workers decreased by 0.2% (from 13.1% to 12.9%). Again, measuring this by nationality alters the ratios slightly: between 2009-2010, the UK national employment level increased by 0.3%, from 91.9% to 92.2%; whereas non-UK national employment decreased by 0.3%, from 8.1% to 7.8% [19].

It is evident that there is simply no equivalence between these figures, let alone a trend indicating that foreign employment increased at the same proportion as British unemployment. When the level of UK-born employment declined between 2008-9, the level of Non-UK born employment also declined. Whereas in the second year of marked decrease, 2010-11, UK-Born employment decreased by 330,000, while the level of Non-UK born employment increased by 190,000: a discrepancy of 140,000. In every other year, the employment levels of both groups rose; and the overall employment level favours British workers each year.

It is therefore impossible to conclude that UK job-loss between 2005-2010 was a consequence of migration, as Smith/May had implied. It was misleading to suggest that migrant employment levels increased continuously, or that UK employment levels decreased with constancy. It was equally untrue to intimate that those changes in respective employment levels which did occur, happened only under the previous government. What was undoubtedly the most egregious falsehood of all was to omit any reference to the economic crisis which began in 2008, and which had such a significant impact upon employment levels – especially those of foreign workers.

This flatly discredits any notion of a decline in the total level of British employment being due to a major increase in the employment-level of foreign workers. In fact, it can be put more strongly than this here: if immigration had caused unemployment, then the employment level of UK-born/UK nationals would undergo a directly proportionate decline as the employment level of Non-UK born/ Non-UK nationals increased. This is evidently not what happened. In fact, the ONS themselves say as much:

“The estimates relate to the number of people in employment rather than the number of jobs. These statistics have sometimes been incorrectly interpreted as indicating the proportion of new jobs that are taken by foreign migrants”[20].

So, all told, it is perfectly clear that the claims being made by Teresa May and Iain Duncan Smith were simply not true.

Further reading

For an overview of foreign nationals in the UK workforce, see ‘Non-UK born workers’ by Nomisweb/Office for National Statistics; 26th May 2011: http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/published/stories/story.asp?id=6

Full Fact provide a brief analysis of a previous ministerial attempt to blame unemployment on migration in ‘Does Immigration Cost British Workers Jobs?’ by Full Fact; 21st May 2012: http://fullfact.org/factchecks/does_immigration_cost_UK_workers_jobs-27257

Economic activity among foreign nationals in the UK workforce was recorded by the 2011 Census. See ‘71% of foreign nationals economically active in England and Wales’ by Office for National statistics; 12th August 2013:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census/detailed-characteristics-for-regions-in-england-and-for-wales/sty-economic-activity.html

Despite remaining ignored in virtually all public discussion of social security and unemployment levels, there is an extensive range of reports by official sources, which chronicle the impact of 2008’s recession and subsequent economic crisis on the employment rate. Those published by the ONS include:

‘Unemployment across the UK’ by Nomisweb/Office for National Statistics; 20th July 2011: http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/published/stories/story.asp?id=10

‘Impact of the recession: Regional Trends 43 2010/11’ by Cecilia Campos et al/Office for National Statistics; 2011:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/regional-trends/regional-trends/regional-trends–july-2011-edition/impact-of-the-recession.pdf

There was one element of the Daily Mail’s article which I have not taken into consideration here – namely their claim that immigration can “depress wages for the low-skilled”. As with most other aspects of the above analysis, evidence on this is not conclusive. However, for an overview of the complex impact migration has on the UK labour market see ‘The Labour Market Effects Of Immigration’ by Martin Ruhs and Carlos Vargas-Silva/Migration Observatory; 5th March 2014:

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/labour-market-effects-immigration

See also ‘Characteristics and Outcomes of Migrants in the UK Labour Market’ by Cinzia Rienzo/Migration Observatory; 30th October 2013:

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/characteristics-and-outcomes-migrants-uk-labour-market

For an analysis which demonstrates why the matter remains inconclusive, and inconvenient to sweeping appraisals, see ‘Employment of Foreign Workers: Focus on Earnings’ by Office for National Statistics; November 2008: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lmac/employment-of-foreign-workers/employment-of-foreign-workers–focus-on-earnings/employment-of-foreign-workers—focus-on-earnings.pdf

See also ‘British jobs and foreign workers: today’s reports on immigration and unemployment’ by Jonathan Portes/National Institute of Economic and Social Research; 10th Jan 2012:

http://niesr.ac.uk/blog/british-jobs-and-foreign-workers-todays-reports-immigration-and-unemployment

[1] ‘Jobless migrants to be denied housing benefit – Ministers insist UK’s generous welfare system will no longer be a magnet for citizens of other EU states’ by James Chapman/Daily Mail; 19th January 2014: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2542352/Exclusive-Ministers-new-crackdown-Housing-benefit-ban-jobless-migrants.html

[2] ‘Jobless migrants to be denied housing benefit – Ministers insist UK’s generous welfare system will no longer be a magnet for citizens of other EU states’ by James Chapman/Daily Mail; 19th January 2014: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2542352/Exclusive-Ministers-new-crackdown-Housing-benefit-ban-jobless-migrants.html

This is not the first time these claims have been made by the Mail – see ‘At last, hard evidence that can’t be ignored: Immigration is reducing jobs for British workers and David Cameron must act now’ by the aptly named James Slack/Daily Mail; 11th January 2012: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2084923/Immigration-reducing-jobs-British-workers-David-Cameron-act-now.html

[3] ‘Understanding A8 migration to the UK since Accession’ by Emma Gillingham/Office for National Statistics; November 2010: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/migration-statistics-quarterly-report/november-2010/understanding-a8-migration-to-the-uk-since-accession.pdf

[4] ‘Global recession timeline – How did the credit crunch at the end of 2007 become a full financial meltdown by the middle of 2008, and finally turn into a global recession?’ by BBC News (no date): http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8242825.stm

[5] ‘Labour Market Statistics, January 2014’ by Office for National Statistics; 22nd January 2014: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_347785.pdf (page 11).

[6] ‘Labour market statistics, January 2008’ by National Statistics; 16th January 2008: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/january-2008/jan-2008-stat-bulletin.pdf

‘Labour market statistics, January 2009’ by Office for National Statistics; 21st January 2009:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/january-2009/january-2009-stat-bulletin.pdf

[7] See “Chapter 4: Labour Market” in ‘Social Trends 39’ by Office for National Statistics; 15th April 2009: www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/social-trends-rd/social-trends/social-trends-39/social-trends-full-report.pdf

[8] The ONS Labour Market Statistics are published in January, and report on the previous 12 months. (Up until 2009, the ONS was known simply as National Statistics). So, for 2005 see ‘Labour Market Trends, January 2006’ by National Statistics; 9th February 2006: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-trends–discontinued-/volume-114–no–1/labour-market-trends.pdf

For 2006 see ‘Economic & Labour Market Review, January 2007, Volume 1, Number 1’ by National Statistics; 2007: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/economic-and-labour-market-review/no–1–january-2007/economic—labour-market-review.pdf

For 2007 see ‘Labour market statistics, January 2008’ by National Statistics; 16th January 2008: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/january-2008/jan-2008-stat-bulletin.pdf

For 2008 see ‘Labour market statistics, January 2009’ by Office for National Statistics; 21st January 2009: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/january-2009/january-2009-stat-bulletin.pdf

For 2009 see ‘Labour market statistics, January 2010’ by Office for National Statistics; 20th January 2010: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/january-2010/labour-market-statistics.pdf

For 2010 see ‘Labour market statistics, January 2011’ by Office for National Statistics; 19th January 2011: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/lms-january-2011/labour-market-statistics.pdf

For 2011 see ‘Labour market statistics, January 2012’ by Office for National Statistics; 18th January 2012: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_250593.pdf

For 2012 see ‘Labour market statistics, January 2013’ by Office for National Statistics; 23rd January 2013: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_292911.pdf

For 2013 see ‘Labour market statistics, January 2014’ by Office for National Statistics; 22nd January 2014: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_347785.pdf

[9] ‘ONS news release on UK born and non-UK born employment (M&A Note 3/2009)’ by UK Statistics Authority/Office for National statistics; 16th March 2009: http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/monitoring/monitoring-reviews/monitoring—assessment-note-3–ons-news-release-on-uk-born-and-non-uk-born-employment.pdf

[10] ‘ONS news release on UK born and non-UK born employment (M&A Note 3/2009)’ by UK Statistics Authority/Office for National statistics; 16th March 2009: http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/monitoring/monitoring-reviews/monitoring—assessment-note-3–ons-news-release-on-uk-born-and-non-uk-born-employment.pdf

[11] This is aside from the fairly obvious fact that Britons would not have been removed from an employment post, specifically in order to be replaced by a migrant from abroad.

[12]‘Non-UK born workers – 2011’ by Office for National Statistics; 26th May 2011: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_234559.pdf

The ONS add that “there were also increases in the percentage of non-UK born workers in each of the three higher-skill groups, although the increases there were not as large as that in low-skill jobs”.

[13] ‘Non-UK born workers – 2011’ by Office for National Statistics; 26th May 2011: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_234559.pdf

[14] ‘Non-UK born workers – 2011’ by Office for National Statistics; 26th May 2011: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_234559.pdf

[15] ‘1 in 5 workers in low-skill occupations are non-UK born’ by Office for National Statistics; 26th May 2011: http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/articles/ref/stories/6/Non-UK%20Story.pdf

[16] ‘1 in 5 workers in low-skill occupations are non-UK born’ by Office for National Statistics; 26th May 2011: http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/articles/ref/stories/6/Non-UK%20Story.pdf

[17] ‘Employment of Foreign Workers: 2007-2009’ by Jessica Coleman/Office for National Statistics; May 2010: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lmac/employment-of-foreign-workers/employment-of-foreign-workers–2007-2009/employment-of-foreign-workers—2007-2009.pdf

[18] See Table 1, page 2 in ‘Employment of Foreign Workers: 2007-2009’ by Jessica Coleman/Office for National Statistics; May 2010: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lmac/employment-of-foreign-workers/employment-of-foreign-workers–2007-2009/employment-of-foreign-workers—2007-2009.pdf

[19] See the second part of table 1, page 2 in ‘Employment of Foreign Workers: 2007-2009’ by Jessica Coleman/Office for National Statistics; May 2010: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lmac/employment-of-foreign-workers/employment-of-foreign-workers–2007-2009/employment-of-foreign-workers—2007-2009.pdf

[20] See page 4 in ‘Labour Market Statistics, January 2012’ by Office for National Statistics; 18th January 2012: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_250593.pdf

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